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Poster: Mandojammer Date: Nov 8, 2012 10:14am
Forum: GratefulDead Subject: Re: Stand the Fuck By!! Mando throws the bullshit flag and people are gonna lose an eye

Not really.

Compounding a big number results in a bigger number. And then that gets compounded. Again and again.

The "gas on the fire" items you list pale in comparison to the exponential function.

Here's a story I like to use to illustrate my point:

"Suppose I had a magic eye dropper and I placed a single drop of water in the middle of your left hand. The magic part is that this drop of water is going to double in size every minute. At first nothing seems to be happening, but by the end of a minute, that tiny drop is now the size of two tiny drops. After another minute, you now have a little pool of water that is slightly smaller in diameter than a dime sitting in your hand.

After six minutes, you have a blob of water that would fill a thimble.

Now suppose we take our magic eye dropper to Fenway Park, and, right at 12:00 p.m. in the afternoon, we place a magic drop way down there on the pitcher’s mound.

To make this really interesting, suppose that the park is watertight and that you are handcuffed to one of the very highest bleacher seats.

My question to you is, “How long do you have to escape from the handcuffs?” When would it be completely filled? In days? Weeks? Months? Years? How long would that take?

I’ll give you a few seconds to think about it.

The answer is, you have until 12:49 on that same day to figure out how you are going to get out of those handcuffs. In less than 50 minutes, our modest little drop of water has managed to completely fill Fenway Park.

Now let me ask you this – at what time of the day would Fenway Park still be 93% empty space, and how many of you would realize the severity of your predicament?

Any guesses? The answer is 12:45. If you were squirming in your bleacher seat waiting for help to arrive, by the time the field is covered with less than 5 feet of water, you would now have less than 4 minutes left to get free.

And that, right there, illustrates one of the key features of compound growth…the one thing I want you take away from all this. With exponential functions, the action really only heats up in the last few moments.

We sat in our seats for 45 minutes and nothing much seemed to be happening, and then in four minutes – bang! – the whole place was full."

Attributing the debt growth to a policy, or a tax break or a war accounts for the couple of drops that are dumped on the pitcher's mound.

Deficit spending is a self licking ice cream cone that blows itself up.

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Poster: unclejohn52 Date: Nov 8, 2012 11:05am
Forum: GratefulDead Subject: Re: Stand By!! Mando throws the bullshit flag and people are gonna lose an eye

Love it.

So, the crux of the nut is, what part of the timeline are we in now? And how does that timeline compare/align with years/budgetary cycles? Or, put another way, were the drips roughly post-Vietnam (Nixon-Carter seems to show the first real growth in the deficit) and the Reagan-Bush-Clinton years primarily bigger drips, or compounding? Are we in 5 to 10 feet of water, or are we at 12-13 drips?

I guess what I'm getting at is, even addressing the deficit in the limited terms of Washington's outlook - are we reducing the starting place at this point, or using a useless thimble against an existing tsunami.... or is the tsunami 50 years away. Is it totally useless to chip away or flatten the deficit curve (Clinton years) when compounding is responsible for most of the growth anyway?

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Poster: William Tell Date: Nov 8, 2012 11:42am
Forum: GratefulDead Subject: Re: Stand By!! Mando throws the bullshit flag and people are gonna lose an eye

Hey uj; if you didn't see the other comment, it is v much the case that moving 'up' the age for SS/medic a few yrs, which makes ALL the SENSE in the world, solves ALL these probs...

No ifs, ands, or buts (that is why every doom and gloom scenario summary requires that "...leave SS/medic alone..." or some such wording).

We will DO that some day and thus, it's not a big worry to me...but, I go by Polly Anna when I am not William Tell.

;)

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Poster: Mandojammer Date: Nov 8, 2012 11:49am
Forum: GratefulDead Subject: Re: Stand By!! Mando throws the bullshit flag and people are gonna lose an eye

Actually Tell, it only solves about $700 Billion of the problem.

Which will be $20 TRILLION by 2016......

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Poster: unclejohn52 Date: Nov 8, 2012 12:27pm
Forum: GratefulDead Subject: Re: Stand By!! Mando throws the bullshit flag and people are gonna lose an eye

Actually, my understanding is that SS is segregated from the deficit. It has its own problems, and I agree that scaling the cap or indexing makes the "SS problem" go away.

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Poster: high flow Date: Nov 8, 2012 10:34am
Forum: GratefulDead Subject: Re: Stand the Fuck By!! Mando throws the bullshit flag and people are gonna lose an eye

5, 10, 20, 40, dead. Yep, four minutes.

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